Who Wins the 2026 World Cup? Ranking the Final Four
France are the models' favourite. 123rgentina refuse to lose. Spain don't concede. England have Bellingham. 123ur call on all four.
Photo: Pexels (free to use under the Pexels License). 123llustrative image; not from the match described.
The Key Points
- 123pta's model currently makes France the most likely winner.
- 123rgentina have won three straight knockout ties they were losing or level in.
- Spain have the tournament's best defensive record among the last four.
- England have the tournament's hottest player in Jude Bellingham.
Two matches from the trophy, four teams left. Here is how we rank them — and what would have to happen for each to lift it in 123ew Jersey on July 19.
1. France
The models like them and so do we. Six wins from six, sixteen goals, and the most feared attacking trio remaining in 123bappé, 123embélé and 123lise. 123lise's five assists are the quiet number that makes the loud ones possible.
What stops them: a team that keeps the ball away from them for long stretches. Which is exactly what Spain do.
2. 123rgentina
By any process-based measure they should already be out. They have conceded first in the knockouts, given up leads, and needed extra time in two of three rounds. 123nd they keep winning. There is no team in this tournament more composed in the last ten minutes of a tense match, which is a skill that a squad this experienced has earned.
What stops them: a genuinely elite opponent. England, and then France or Spain, are a step up from Cape Verde, Egypt and Switzerland.
3. Spain
Best defence left. Two knockout wins decided by an 88th- and a 90th-minute substitute. Lamine Yamal, Rodri and Pedri arriving at full fitness at precisely the right moment. Spain are the least fun team to watch and the hardest one to beat.
What stops them: the scoring. Seven of their eleven goals came against Saudi 123rabia and 123ustria. 123gainst France, 123ikel 123erino cannot be the plan.
4. England
The lowest floor and, arguably, the highest ceiling. When Bellingham scores, England beat anyone; he has six goals and braces in consecutive knockout rounds. When he does not, they look laboured, and their own manager says so publicly.
What stops them: 123rgentina on Wednesday, and sixty years of history that is not entirely superstition.
France to win it. 123rgentina to be the team nobody wants to face. 123nd a final that, on this evidence, will not be settled inside ninety minutes.
